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Is the compact pick-up segment growing or shrinking?

6.6K views 20 replies 12 participants last post by  davn  
#1 ·
The number one seller in the compact pick-up segment is the Toyota Tacoma. It has sold 146,724 units so far this year in a segment that is expected to sell 225,000 units across the entire year. Part of the reasons for the Tacoma's success is that many other car makers have pulled out of the segment.

Ford and Chrysler have both focused on the full-size pick-up market instead. The full-size segment is projected to sell 1.9 million units a year, which makes the compact segment look like a niche market.

Small trucks have the added benefit of bringing down a company's corporate average fuel economy to meet future regulations, but the margin on a compact truck is just not as significant as those for full-size trucks. A small truck would need to be <$20,000 and have better than 30 MPG to be competitive. A half-ton truck that can get 27 MPG and be had for the low $20,000s look like a better plan to many car makers.

The big question is whether the compact truck market is dying, or whether it will soon see enormous growth as people opt for smaller vehicles instead of larger less fuel efficient ones.

Do you think the compact truck segment is growing or shrinking?
 
#2 ·
Well, I have one, does that help?
 
#4 ·
With the exit of the 355 Colly and the Ranger, there are really only the Taco and the Frontier in the market, so if someone wants a compact truck and is not brand loyal, there are only the 2 choices for a new truck (not counting the true lifestyle trucks ala that Honda Ridgeline sort of thing).
So sales probably are up at Toyota and Nissan but probably will level off a lot when the new Colly and GMC version come out. I don't know if it is a greatly expanding category but sound reasoning I think would show the market will go up not down, especially if they can get a significant load carrier to get upwards of 30 mpg when empty. I would suspect the trend will be to show mpg without a load in the bed and the consumer will have to accept if you throw a heavy or bulky load in the bed it won't ba as good. I also an anticipating at some point the manufacturers might want some aerodynamics in place if the bed is empty, time will tell.
 
#5 · (Edited)
In North America it has shrunk to nearly non-existent with the exception of the Tacoma and Frontier as Gilly stated. From what we have seen about the new Colorados I think if people like them when they come out it will certainly make the segment grow again. In my opinion now that it appears they have really spruced up the interior with the options its all about MPGs and cost. If they want people to come back to the mid-size trucks they need to get better MPG than the full size and cost at least 5K less for a similar optioned truck. I am willing to pay the cost of a full size if that diesel gets me 30mpg.
 
#6 ·
"If they want people to come back to the mid-size trucks they need to get better MPG than the full size and cost at least 5K less for a similar optioned truck"

^^Exactly.
Plus the small/mid-sized will actually fit in most people's garages! :)

I wouldn't be surprised to see Hyundai/Kia step up in the next 5-10 years and put out a solid, affordable small-er truck.
 
#8 · (Edited)
Well this is a biased forum to ask ... we're all obviously waiting on the next midsize.

But I see the sentiment quite often on full size truck forums that people would like to have more choice and would consider downsizing.

I think the manufacturers all thought alike, and chased the easier profits of full sizes. GM is not taking as big a gamble as they make it sound like in their press releases. They are bringing fresh product to a market that went stale, and will do well. I'm sure the total sales of GM + Toyo + Nissan will be up in aggregate.

Even the Tacoma and Frontier forumers admit they have gotten frustrated with how lazy their manufacturers have become, want the market to have more competition, and give them some *motivation* to trade to a newer model.
 
#10 ·
I own a Collie and a CR-V. I prefer to drive my CR-V due to the sound system and computer gadgets. But I also need to haul some 400 lbs of salt pellets or heavier etc from time to time. Cannot deny the love for a small truck with decent gas mileage for a commuter. But cannot deny the comfort systems put in place by others.

I work on a lot of commercial fleet vehicles. None of them are Coloarados. Most go with full size for loaded vehicles or Sentras or Prius for light duty.
 
#12 ·
Agreed fully.

The last full compact we had was the Ranger which was essentially unchanged from the 80s through to its demise. From what I know the Ranger was only killed because it would not meet shifting crash test ratings and Ford decided to forego the necessary alterations for whatever reason.

Theres a really good editorial piece over on The Truth About Cars that highlights the struggles this segment faces. For one, in 2002 the Ranger moved 226K units, today the entire mid-size market moves 225K units annually....

Editorial: Mid-Size Trucks Don’t Matter | The Truth About Cars
 
#13 ·
Do you think that there is pent up demand for more options in this segment, or are car makers getting out because it is on the decline. Seems to me that even smaller trucks are really not going to happen given the way things are going right now.

It's weird because I can see the trend going towards bigger trucks (which in some ways it seems to be going already) but I can also see people wanting smaller trucks as it seems to fit in with the whole crossover trend - utility vehicles that are smaller.
 
#14 ·
It is much easier to conform to modern side and roof crush standards on a midsize. True compacts are probably gone for a decade or more, unless we see gas at ridiculous prices. Even regular cab midsize will probably not come back. After Toyota bows out next year, they will no longer be offered by anyone.
 
#17 ·
I think that full size will slowly fade out. It might take a while though, so it might seem like the compact segment is stagnating, but I think investment here now will pay off further down the line. I certainly think that smaller vehicles make more sense. I can fit most everything I want to in the back of a Colorado. I don't think I really need a full size pick up truck. I think it is mostly for the looks.
 
#18 ·
PU trucks use to be sold as trucks. They were inexpensive, with cheaper insurance, and used primarily as a working vehicle. Then people realized the economy of them and more and more were sold as personal vehicles. After that people wanted all of the options found in cars and we have the US market that you see today. GM still made Colorado in a work truck and filled lots fleet orders. I have one and my local electric utility has them all over the place.

If you look overseas in any regional conflict you will see this class of truck everywhere as work trucks. They also make good gun platforms for 50 Cals and the like while moving up to 8 or so people in the bed with a machine gun mounted in the center.

So a manufacturer needs to determine which market he wishes to sell to (work or personal) and build / price accordingly.
 
#21 ·
Now if you want to go way back, one used to buy a cab on a chasis and then either build their own bed, box, house, what have you or have an after market body builder make one of their choosing... maybe as late as the 1930's, then of course nothing was available 1940-1947 or so due to WWII and recovery, I guess it wasn't until 1948-1950 that pickups came as complete as we know them today.. of course you may still buy a truck with cab only but not sure if you would save any money doing so.