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The long and short of it is that EV models are not yet for everyone.

The SAE Automotive magazine has most MFGs expecting by 2030 that the market will be 1/3 Gas, EV and Hybrid each. Most are still planning to offer ICE up till 2050.

There is going to be a transition and it will take time.

EV has many benefits but it also has draw backs that require life style changes for some folks that many will not accept. Charging at home is ok for many but in many Urban areas it is not going to happen. Sitting at charging lots will not be fun in the middle of winter in some areas too.

The 800 pound gorilla in the room is the advancement of technology too. As EV models advance the older ones will lose a lot of value. Much like how we see with Cell Phones or TV's. Once tech moves forward the old tech is not of value to many. This could spur many to lease.

There is lots to learn and deal with yet in this change in technology.

It is going to be expensive to invest in this tech now for companies but if they fail to do so they will be in danger of losing out in the future too.
 

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Good date you provide, and your summary states my position.

I could actually probably justify one electric vehicle and one gasser, with charging overnight for free, if the vehicle costs was competitive. My wife and I each commute less than 5 miles to work each day. On a worst case scenario for work, I rarely do over 100 miles in a day, with all my miles within the county. Need the gasser for the longer trips, for hauling/towing, etc.

It's funny you said the one gasser and one electric. I said the exact thing to the wife the other day. What makes it even more attractive is the city I work for is very pro "GREEN" and has had free charging stations for employees for years. Work is under 2 miles from the house so for her that may work out at some point in time. Not currently interested because her Highlander is a 17 and doesn't have a whole lot of miles on it. In my position I have a company ride so my truck hides in the garage during week and is used for long range stuff and occasional field service work on weekends.

Because FL is the "snowbird" capital an all electric vehicle is the absolute perfect vehicle for people who spend half the year here and the other half elsewhere. Plug it in and go away for 6 months with no maintenance to worry about.
 

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0-60. Times are nice but mean little if you have to sit along the road charging 60 min every 300 miles on a trip. Also you have to pay more for the Vehicle due to still expensive batteries. If the 3 had a gas engine it would be a $25-35 k car not the $55 most are costing. The Bolt has the same issues.

The key yo the future us one lower the price of the battery. Two get a battery that charges in 5 min andoil prices need to go up. The cost to fuel a car is cheaper than Electric right now. Not much more but more.

Right now prices are too high on most vehicles and less and less people can afford a new car. It is a problem no matter what drives it.
Full electrics still remain a nice local driving/commuter toy for well off people who can afford them and wanna feel all warm and fuzzy about saving the planet, and they can be a hoot to drive, but I agree with your concerns about their cost and real world broad band usability for the rest of us.

As for me, I recently picked up a clean 35K mile one owner '16 Ford C-Max Energi plug in hybrid, with leather and nicely optioned, at a very good price - 13.8K out the door, TTL included. Plug in hybrids and full electrics can be great used car buys, as the tax incentives are baked into their used car prices. "No haggle" pricing is haggle pricing too, if an orphan Ford car has been on a Kia dealer's lot for 3 months and they want to get rid of it. Handy tip, don't argue a decent and recently lowered asking price, argue the inflated dealer fees down - money is money!

The Max is a cool little car. I dig going on short trips in EV mode, as it is great to hop into that and not have to short trip my Canyon. The car can go about 21 miles in EV mode. The car is averaging around 90 MPG overall as the wife uses it for a lot of short trips. With 118 electric horsepower and a 2L gas engine aboard, the sharp braking and handling Max can get pretty aggressive and torque steer all over the road if driven in a not eco friendly way too, it's sporty Focus roots show through.

Signed up for overnight "Time of Use" lower electric rates, charging the car costs a net $3 more a month on our electric bill vs. our prior plan, as we also shifted using the dryer and dishwasher to between the 9PM and 9AM cheap rate times. Using a $2.70 cost for a gallon of gas, we are saving $100 a month on fuel, and my Canyon no longer gets short tripped at all. I just whir off in EV mode to the store or gym nearby.

In my experience, cars with electric power can make practical and financial sense, if they have a motor in them and are not Teslas. While it is functionally very similar, I like that the "Max" is not a Prius, it actually has a little "attitude" ;)

383411
 

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Full electrics still remain a nice local driving/commuter toy for well off people who can afford them and wanna feel all warm and fuzzy about saving the planet, and they can be a hoot to drive, but I agree with your concerns about their cost and real world broad band usability for the rest of us.

As for me, I recently picked up a clean 35K mile one owner '16 Ford C-Max Energi plug in hybrid, with leather and nicely optioned, at a very good price - 13.8K out the door, TTL included. Plug in hybrids and full electrics can be great used car buys, as the tax incentives are baked into their used car prices. "No haggle" pricing is haggle pricing too, if an orphan Ford car has been on a Kia dealer's lot for 3 months and they want to get rid of it. Handy tip, don't argue a decent and recently lowered asking price, argue the inflated dealer fees down - money is money!

The Max is a cool little car. I dig going on short trips in EV mode, as it is great to hop into that and not have to short trip my Canyon. The car can go about 21 miles in EV mode. The car is averaging around 90 MPG overall as the wife uses it for a lot of short trips. With 118 electric horsepower and a 2L gas engine aboard, the sharp braking and handling Max can get pretty aggressive and torque steer all over the road if driven in a not eco friendly way too, it's sporty Focus roots show through.

Signed up for overnight "Time of Use" lower electric rates, charging the car costs a net $3 more a month on our electric bill vs. our prior plan, as we also shifted using the dryer and dishwasher to between the 9PM and 9AM cheap rate times. Using a $2.70 cost for a gallon of gas, we are saving $100 a month on fuel, and my Canyon no longer gets short tripped at all. I just whir off in EV mode to the store or gym nearby.

In my experience, cars with electric power can make practical and financial sense, if they have a motor in them and are not Teslas. While it is functionally very similar, I like that the "Max" is not a Prius, it actually has a little "attitude" ;)

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There are just different needs and wants for most. What works for you will appeal to some but not others. Hence the prediction that the market will split into thirds.
I could go full EV for daily driving but I will not pay the price. I have no interest in Hybrid.
I agree the used market as prices are down not due to tax breaks but due to little interest by most for used hybrids or EV models.
We can see a fast shift at anytime with new breakthroughs. We should soon see solid state batteries that can increase life, charge faster and lower cost.
But till then slow and steady growth should be expected here in America.
Most people today just want more affordable vehicles. They all are just too expensive and eat a larger part of everyone’s income.
 

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Indeed - the auto makers are facing tough headwinds. I saw this the other day.


And this:


I think two things need to happen - auto makers need to offer simpler and less expensive cars, and perhaps more importantly, people need to get real with their expectations. Poverty comes with a fancy cell phone, flat screen TV and a car with a good stereo with cell phone integration, power everything and 200 HP under the hood. Those new car expectations and the stiff lease payments or 7 year auto loans they lead to are not sustainable, and the auto makers are finally getting pinched by that. A lot of younger people, especially city dwellers, opt not to buy any kind of car at all and they take public trans and/or Uber.

Ah, the good old days. I had a '79 Dodge pickup truck with a 3 on the tree and a slant 6. It had manual steering, brakes and no A/C. Was young and dumb and loved that truck back then. I still get into my Canyon and feel like I have died and gone to heaven :)

As for the solid state batteries, who knows. Maybe in 10 years with tech advances, I could retrofit a compact 20 kWh pack to the old C-Max for reasonable cash and triple it's range to 60 miles. That would be awesome. Prius types retrofitting plug in batteries to their hybrid cars is a thing. Those cars never seem to die. Hybrids are durable - NYC Yellow Cabs are usually Camry or Prius Hybrids. They are reliable and efficient, and survive 75K miles a year in the city abuse, which is a testament to their durability. Funny thing was, I looked up the registration history, my little red car was a cab in it's former life.

In the end, we got our little hybrid car not to save the planet, but to save money. The kid's 2002 crate of a Suzuki finally dropped a valve and died, the wife gave the kid her 12 year old (bought new and well maintained) Kia, so she needed a car, and her driving habits are perfect for this particular and apparently rather unloved vehicle. Saving $1,200 a year on fuel adds up pretty fast, and the car itself is a nice ride for the money we spent. The whole train wreck was set in motion by the kid - doesn't it always work out that way? We made the best of it though 😆
 

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I see the automakers and GM looking at the EV cars as being their way out.

Once they get the technology out and cheaper with more suppliers competing they will see greater cost savings not only in materials due to cheaper cost but also fewer parts.

They also will need less in people in assembly and development since many of the same parts will be shared across the fleet.

Much of this depends on better and cheaper batteries. The one who gets them first will enjoy a major advantage.

Also they will save in emissions testing and equipment as well no more CAFE testing and fuel system testing. The EV just eliminates many of the cost factors once they get the battery cost sorted out.

One last thing to consider is these systems turn automakers into tech companies in the eyes of investors. They can and will sell and License their tech to other auto companies that can not develop their own systems. We have already seen the Mustang Mach E mules at the GM proving ground so GM looks to have already sold some of their tech.

Even some companies may do as most electronic firms and not even mfg their vehicles. They will outsource production much like Apple sends their production to a Foxconn.
 

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Interesting and good points. Tesla still enjoys a greater market capitalization than Ford, despite having burned through 6B in cash so far, all this with sometimes wacky and unpredictable Elon Musk at the helm.

If I was CEO of Ford, I would be looking at Musk and his nutty shenanigans with envy. He signs off on stuff like this SpaceX video. Each blow up is probably another 100M of Wall Street's money 😆


Edit - this just in - GM is partnering with LG to build a 2.3B dollar battery plant in Ohio. Always liked GM CEO Mary Barra, she is plain spoken and seems rather cool.


I do hope the South Koreans are a lot better to work with than the Chinese. Look up Fuyao Glass and how the Chinese are treating their American workers in Dayton Ohio. It is not pretty...
 
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